I always enjoy reading different media outlets and analysts' player projections. It is always interesting when one guy somewhere tries to re-invent the wheel with some way-out-there reason why some awful player will have a huge season or vice-versa. Injuries play a huge role in projecting players, and honestly, make it increasingly difficult. I think it makes a large difference when older players coming off of injuries or bad seasons lose weight to save wear and tear on their critical muscles and joints. I thought Lance Berkman losing 20 lbs. made a huge difference last season, and I think Miguel Cabrera dropping some weight will help him at the plate as well (I don't think anything will help him play 3rd base). Watching players play to me is the biggest help in guessing or estimating how their season will shake out. Anyone can look at a player's slash line and say "he'll do this, or that", but watching how a player achieves his statistics will earn you a deeper understanding. I will sight some examples. Last season there were rumblings that the Cardinals were going to deal Colby Rasmus almost a month before they did. A popular and very intelligent baseball analyst told a local radio host when confronted with the rumor that the team would be stupid for trading a top 5 NL outfielder at such a young age. I laughed and wondered, top 5? Based on what? The guy was hitting around .230 with 5 homeruns in mid-June and looked just awful in the outfield. And that is being generous. His attitude was worse than his play. The hype, the projections, and the saber metric stats from his decent 2010 were slammed in the Cardinals face on every baseball show in the country every day after. What did he do in Toronto? The same thing, exactly. One example from a local team that projected numbers and talent doesn't relate to physically watching him play.
Here on Morale Breaker, my assistant and I have put together some very in depth projections on pitchers and hitters for 2012 to assist fantasy baseball participants. I tried to look at not only the common stats and some valuable metrics, but also some realistic insight based on actually watching them play and listening to other analysts and writers' opinions. I was astounded watching ESPN and them having Adam Wainwright in the "bust" category. Huh? I was surprised. I know he came off of Tommy John surgery, but he wasn't rushed back, and is a player with durable history and who stays in shape. So what do we have so far with Wainwright? Will his scoreless innings streak is at 14 innings this spring with no complications. He will have a great season. The Sporting News placed David Freese in the "bust" category as well. With a history of foot injuries I can see a little caution by the so-called experts, but bust? Yeah, right. I don't want to put David in the Hall just yet, but this guy rakes at every level. His postseason was more than special, but actually it was record setting. He is healthy this spring, and for the first time isn't restricted in workouts or playing time. I even was conservative, but I think .300/30 HR/90 RBI is obtainable. I placed him in the top 5 of 3B's in our fantasy draft cheat sheet (Which you can download off of http://www.moralebreaker.com/) for that reason. The bottom line is nobody has all of the answers when it comes to predicting or projecting player performance. Look at the big picture, including the one on your TV that is showing a baseball game. Watch it, and you just might be surprised what you pick up about a player that isn't in his slash line or WAR metric. Anything that gives you an edge over your Johnny Bozo opponent who just watches baseball highlights on ESPN, is a plus. Happy drafting! Thanks for reading-Joe
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